A Robustness Simulation Method of Project Schedule based on the Monte Carlo Method

ABSTRACT

Since there are obvious uncertainties in task duration, the uncertainty will be passed step by step due to the precedence relationships among tasks. Therefore, one should pay attention to the robustness of project plan when scheduling the project. In this paper, the project plan robustness is evaluated as the probability of completing the project in the planning duration, the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the practical implementation of the project plan considering the characteristics of task duration distribution, and thus a complete estimation approach for project plans is presented. This approach can help project managers to determine the project duration risk and identify the key tasks that influence the project plan robustness seriously at the beginning of project planning.

Keywords: