Application of Time Sequence Model Based on Excluded Seasonality in Daily Runoff Prediction

ABSTRACT

To build a time sequence prediction model with excluded seasonality out of the sequence with prominent seasonal features, primary treatment of seasonality exclusion shall firstly be done, to obtain the pass of stationary test; and then, by integrating autocorrelogram, partial autocorrelogram and AIC codes, ARMA model shall be identified and be able to pass residual correlation test and the optimum hydrological probability distribution function shall be finally determined. In accordance with the daily runoff of the Three Gorges from 1950-2009, the predicted daily runoff in 2010 via R software has small error compared with the observed daily runoff, obtaining good prediction performance.

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