SVAR and NLS Model Analysis of US Bank Financial Derivatives and the Related Fields Based on Their Statistical Data

ABSTRACT

Today, in many countries, there are many banks engaging in financial derivatives trading to manage risks. This paper selects data on financial derivatives trading from US banks and FRED to analyze the effect of financial derivatives trading on US banks and its economy. The results show that the impact of total financial derivatives trading revenue on bank residual (assets less liabilities) is bigger; an increase in total financial derivatives trading will lead to dramatically rise in bank residual in ten years; a positive change in interest rate derivatives trading has strongly positive impact on bank residual in eleven years; US bank credit don’t always expand with the increase in other derivatives (equity and commodity derivatives) trading which is strongly positive in first five years; the change in bank credit represents the feature of convex functions with the grow of total financial derivatives trading and interest rate derivatives; the change in gross government investment represents the characteristic of convex function with the growth of foreign exchange contracts, interest rate derivatives and total financial derivatives trading; an increase in equity and commodity derivatives trading from US banks results in the decrease in U.S. GNP per capita. In a word, more financial derivatives which banking is engaged in are not better.

Keywords:

Bank residual, financial derivatives, gross government investment, US banks, US economy, U.S. GNP per capita.