Research on System Dynamics of Urban Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in Xi’an City, China

ABSTRACT

This paper attempts to simulate the development status of Xi’an City from 2012 to 2025 with the method of Systems Dynamics (SD), in order to provide a reference for the future development of Xi’an city. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, in 2025, the carrying capacity indexes of 5 socio-economic development schemes from the highest to the lowest are status-continuous scheme, coordinate development scheme, economic priority scheme, resource-intensive scheme, and environmental protection scheme. According to the urban comprehensive planning of Xi’an (2008-2020), the predicted value of population scale, which is greater than the one in the status-continuous scheme, resource-intensive scheme, coordinate development scheme and environmental protection scheme, is overload; while the predicted value of GDP in the planning is also greater than the one in the status-continuous scheme and environmental protection scheme, but less than the values in the other three schemes. Therefore, during the forecast period the carrying capacity of land resources for the economic development can meet the actual requirements in Xi’an.

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