Supporting Locate and Search Operations Based on Drift Model and Bayesian Probability

ABSTRACT

With the rapid development of international aviation, air disaster often happens. When the plane crashed in the vast ocean, how to locate the wreckage and fast and effective rescue is worth studying. This paper focuses on locating the crashed plane, determining the rescue area and the search strategies. To locate the crashed plane, the mechanics principle of the crashed plane is analyzed and the dynamic differential equation which can be solved by applying the fourth-order Runge-Kutta algorithm was built. Substituting the related parameters into the numerical solution, We can get the final trajectory and the velocity of the crashed plane. Thus, the crash site can be roughly determined. To determine of rescue, according to the ocean currents of the crash site and the suspicious area, the drifting trajectory of the main plane wreckage to set up rescue area can be roughly confirmed. For the search strategies, the Bayesian probability is applied in the search area. Firstly, the search area can be divided into several small areas which can be represented by appropriate search probabilities in term of the distances between among of drifting trajectories and other subjective information. The closer distance, the greater the priority search probability. Then the search work can be started a prior in the small area with the highest probability. If the crashed plane cannot be found, the priority search probability of every small areas should be updated and repeat the previous work until the end of the search.

Keywords:

Air disaster, search strategies, drift model, bayesian probability, the dynamic differential equation, the fourth-order runge-kutta algorithm.