The Open Electrical & Electronic Engineering Journal

2014, 8 : 56-63
Published online 2014 September 16. DOI: 10.2174/1874129001408010056
Publisher ID: TOEEJ-8-56

Forecasting Tendency of the Transmission Line Project Cost Index Using Markov Chain

Tao Yi , Shanshan Cui and Ke Xu
North China Electric Power University, Institution of Economic and Management, Beijing, 102206, China.

ABSTRACT

The transmission line project cost index, which reflects price changes of transmission line project components affecting project cost, is an integrated indicator. Based on the constitution of the transmission line project cost index, 324 transmission line project cost index during 2002 and 2010 were selected, in order to describe variation tendency of the transmission line project cost index in recent years. The results of Markov chains as a proper model were created for forecasting the transmission line project cost index. The primary contribution of this research is the creation of Markov chain forecasting model that reflects the variation of transmission line project cost index more objective and quickly. It is shown that the method applied to the overall cost evaluation and analysis of factors which influence cost in the estimating stage. It is expected that this work will contribute to the dynamic management of the transmission line project cost index.

Keywords:

Markov chain, the transmission line project cost index, trend prediction.