The Open Electrical & Electronic Engineering Journal

2015, 9 : 363-367
Published online 2015 September 10. DOI: 10.2174/1874129001509010363
Publisher ID: TOEEJ-9-363

A Novel Forecast Method for Air-Conditioning Load of Public Building Considering Accumulated Temperature Effect

Qingshan Xu , Xufang Wang , Chenxing Yang , Hong Zhu and Qingguo Yan
School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, 210096, China.

ABSTRACT

It has great significance to estimate the schedulable capacity of air-conditioning load of public building for participating the power network regulation by forecasting the air-conditioning load accurately. A novel forecast method considering the accumulated temperature effect is proposed in this paper based on Elman neural network. Firstly, the starting and ending date for forecast considering the accumulated temperature effect are determined by providing the five day sliding average thermometer algorithm which is usually adopted in aerology research. Then, the effective accumulated temperature of each day is calculated. Finally, take the effective accumulated temperature, temperature and humidity into consideration, the air-conditioning load of public building in the forecast day is acquired by Elman neural network. Simulated results show that the higher forecast accuracy can be achieved by considering the accumulated temperature effect.

Keywords:

Air-conditioning load, accumulated temperature effect, Elman neural network, five days moving average temperatures, forecast.