The Open Forest Science Journal

2008, 1 : 1-7
Published online 2008 February 14. DOI: 10.2174/1874398600801010001
Publisher ID: TOFSCIJ-1-1

Fire Probability, Fuel Treatment Effectiveness and Ecological Tradeoffs in Western U.S. Public Forests

Jonathan J. Rhodes and William L. Baker
Ecology Program and Department of Geography, Dept. 3371, 1000 E. University Ave., University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA.

ABSTRACT

Fuel treatment effectiveness and non-treatment risks can be estimated from the probability of fire occurrence. Using extensive fire records for western US Forest Service lands, we estimate fuel treatments have a mean probability of 2.0-7.9% of encountering moderate- or high-severity fire during an assumed 20-year period of reduced fuels.