Numerical Analysis of Historic Gold Production Cycles and Implications for Future Sub-Cycles

ABSTRACT

Gold production at an industrial scale developed with the discovery of gold in Australia and the USA in the middle of the 19th century. Since then the gold production rose exponentially with a rate of approximately 2.0% thus reflecting a first-order production cycle. Within this rise, however, four individual sub-cycles can be identified. The current sub-cycle is predicted to lead from a peak in 2001 of 2,600 tons to a global production of 1,600 tons in the year 2018 or even as little as 780 tons in 2026. Further analysis of these sub-cycles, consideration of declining ore grades and energetic constraints lead us to suggest that the year 2001 indeed could have been the peak-gold year of the main 'Hubbert-style' production cycle. A cumulative achievable gold production between 230,000 and 280,000 tons is derived from the application of the so-called Hubbert Linearization. This compares well with a minimum of about 285,000 tons of combined past production and known reserves and resources.

Keywords: